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<p>Dispatch of Netease science and technology on August 4 message, the theme is " new challenge of · of new channel of new technology · " height of trend of development of industry of 2011 China air conditioning can be in Beijing to hold today, netease science and technology made direct seeding report in the spot as collaboration of portal of engage by special arrangement. </p><p>Seek advice from company Han Yu to do the country in 2011 to develop a tendency with air conditioning market for Ao Wei below piece report. </p><p>Compere: Chief inspector of acknowledgment Min lucky star gives us brought report, our OK also and clear understanding carries out the development state of affairs below in policy to industry of Chinese air conditioning, established the confidence that we grow to health of air conditioning career. Have below ask Ao Wei to seek advice from company Mr Han Yu to do the country in 2011 to develop a tendency with air conditioning market for us piece report, have please. </p><p>Han Yu: A moment ago our Min Zong has used home of China of 2011 refrigerant year air conditioning is overall circumstance, did a detailed and meticulous summary, we the judgement prospective tendency of the market, the research gain that we make makes a report with each leader, also make a communication with each person of the same trade. I want to study mine to achievement basically is divided into 3 parts today, the first we understand in front 2010 refrigerant year are whole the dimensions of the industry is to continue to maintain high speed growth. </p><p class="f_center"><br /></p><p>Do to be forecasted simply to market dimensions first above all, min Zong may be the angle from factory shipment in front, next our Ao Wei seeks advice (AVC) this at the same time, it is from terminal sale and consumer buy a such line of action actually, do analysis of a market. </p><p>Above all I want to introduce the dimensions that how we evaluate a market simply, a what kind of condition can future be? Affect market energy to basically have generally speaking so a few element, it is market supply and demand above all it is the mainest essential factor, additional, it is external environment, resemble policy code, macroscopical economy for instance, also can cause an effect, we combine the word in light of the actual condition of air conditioning industry, we can see external environment advantageous have disadvantage, each element, advantageous nice element, advantageous also empty element, it is opposite actually the influence of whole industry demand, whole capacity, more is to supply and demand two generation overdraw one kind, the demand that restrain or spurs them, so we are not a main areas. </p><p>If look next from in-house supply, although integral industry looks from every month, likelihood busy season when meeting existence be in short supply, perhaps produce can insufficient phenomenon, but from whole industry overall annual looks, producing can be superfluous. From the market supply point of view is not met the effect that causes conditionality to market energy. We should judge dimensions of a market to have finally how old, its main area should be to be on demand, we next analyse even if come from demand first proceed with. The word of demand, we have the demand of the market one is classified first, above all we are classified according to the motive of demand, we divide it two kinds, one kind is the demand that increases newly, newly-built family, broad sense is the family that just married to be added newly, this is the demand that increases newly; Still have even if do not have in original home, there perhaps is only in the home, buy air conditioning to become now or two, this is to increase demand newly. The family has a quantity to have change, the definition that we give newer requirement it is original there are 3 in the home, may practical function is bad, perhaps do not accord with demand, we change, this is from demand motivation point of view we basically divide it two kinds big. </p><p>From demand user differentiate our cent is town and country, we made demand first after a structure, we can see, affect dimensions of whole market demand have two, one is to buy base to have how old, still have buy rate. We can see this piece, increase demand newly buying demand is domestic door actually how many do several have, the family is bought rate have many tall, this family has the change of rate to air conditioning, of all this year of families retain the quantity is subtractive on one year retain measure even if increase demand newly. So already some air conditioning and fall into disuse update, we are based on a such models to do an analysis to demand of market of whole China future. </p><p>We look to increase demand newly above all, we have a few to compare the element with good profit above all, bonus of the first population, we can see the population of Chinese past years be born, arrive 86 years 90 years, it is a height that Chinese mouth is born, we are counted from the marriage of statistic of civil administration ministry also can see, the 80 second half after Duan Man is slow enter finish wedding day, also be year after year rises these a few years. Now should be to be in 1300 to 15 million, can have a very big stimulative effect to adding a family newly so. </p><p>Consider a family even additionally the problem of urban and rural structure, above all we will see scale of family of a town, the town that says normally namely changes a process to be accelerated again, accelerate again, the proportion that we take place of family of calendar year town, do analysis of a trend, probably 2013 town family door several meetings exceed rural family, this is one concludes, total family door number is the number above, buy a such base is general doing that push simply to act to be being added newly. </p><p>Have the change of rate namely together additionally, have frank likelihood cent to become two angle of town and country, visit town above all, we also did an analysis, although say the newest all computation end 2010 seizes town family now, 100 every of town family are 116, but we think to have bigger difference from whole threshold values, japanese word, actually it is a rapid growth, achieved 2004 250, that is to say each family has 2.5 air conditioning on average, namely after 4 years, basically won't grow again, if if we consult,so this level looks, every family has the possibility on average the quantity may be in a such 2.5 levels. At present Chinese town family still is 116, what we do according to this threshold values is a such judgement. </p><p>100 of rural family have an amount we consult town, actually we do research to discover an interesting phenomenon, everybody may say, country why what air conditioning sells is bad, the idea that gives authority may be rural family income insufficient, money is not too enough, pass our analysis actually, go to his income comparing the price index at home appliance product, we can push those who calculate the income that gives him to buy home appliance to buy leading is to be in actually elevatory. We look, if same income, home appliance buys the coequal level of rate to fall, at present 100 of rural family have an amount, have 30% what town family has an amount 100 times only, differred 70% , actually that is to say, if do not have living conditions and everybody the difference of habits and customs, if consider only from income, rural photograph has very big gap than be being returned at town. That is to say, actually income is not the most important restricting that restricts rural family to buy air conditioning element, the habits and customs that more is them and consumption are used to an influence with surroundings, we transform it may not be a bad idea through income and construction of new now rural area, electrified wire netting, whole include more agricultural labour force to be transferred to town, he brings back the consumptive habit that go, habits and customs, we judge future 5 years his buying intention is can elevatory. We did a data according to historical data likewise, referenced this data, right in the near future rural family air conditioning bought a quantity to make a budget, we judge him to accord with increase rate every year to achieve 6.4% , the country can carry the increase rate of 28.5% , 2010 - domestic family added demand newly to will increase to by 29.41 million 2015 62.27 million, year all compound increase rate 16% . Arrive to grew 35 million 2014 after right-and-left level, in the near future the demand of town family may hold the possibility a such level. The country still can maintain to compare divide evenly all the time in the near future fast growth rate, a such posture, if whole throughout the country looks integratedly, we judge 2010-2015 year, from demand angle, family year all compound increase rate 16% . </p><p>Still having is newer requirement together, from the point of newer rate, in 12 years when those who change is most, whole basis historical sales volume is computative come down, the dimensions general interest that begins every year to update from 2012 later exceeds 10 million, by 10 million to the 1800 processes that go forward one by one. Whole in light of, the market from domestic angle demand, namely update and add addition newly, we can see in the near future, the demand of air conditioning still can carry compound increase rate 17% , this is it may not be a bad idea of box of opposite Yu Bing, washing machine it may not be a bad idea, or color television it may not be a bad idea, report of this kind of traditional everybody, should say air conditioning in the near future demand is best. If jump,give data actually, we make a judgement simply, look above all from the circumstance of every family demand, to air conditioning the amount of demand should be most, color television also can exceed possibly, resemble the word of freezer, washing machine, had, increase meeting difficulty again, air conditioning gap is very big still, we are so whole judgement, in the near future, this plants air conditioning compound growth situation should be highest. In the near future particular numerical value can be in probably 2012 5300, next progressively 6000, 7000, upgrade of such 8000 dimensions of a demand increase by degrees, this is from demand for. </p><p>A moment ago our respecting exterior element can affect demand and supply, include population extra dividend, include town to change, it is good to wait these benefits a moment element, can carry the compound growth rate of 17% . </p><p>Next we see a few exterior factors, more it is interest empty factor, basically behave so big field: </p><p>It is policy effect above all, especially energy-saving Hui Min, this should say energy-saving Hui Min should be to overdraw the market demand of one share next year, especially policy should look for accurate anticipation, include channel it may not be a bad idea, consumer it may not be a bad idea to buy one overdraws, buy ahead of schedule namely. </p><p>The inflationary pressure that is now additionally, from the point of national level whole currency is in contractive condition, resemble financing difficulty especially, in resembling especially, small agency and financing of medium and small businesses have difficulty, market strategy direction at more careful, more conservative, also can arise restrict, still have wait a series of elements a moment, did not say one by one, the expert has made a few simple introductions in front. Overall the pressure that includes stock, corresponding inventory pressure is compared last year is to have increase, still have the accumulation of the pressure that includes cost, restrain popularize sexual demand, successive after fast growth of two years, the growth of next year we are to support a more cautious attitude. Whole judgement comes down, I cite a concept is demand goes to be led now, namely demand is changed into buy actually, in light of whole according to the word with refrigerant computative year, market demand demand and its real sale, we can see annual requirement goes to be led now is not stable in 100, it is in 100 or so wave motion, 7 years a few taller, 8 years, can imagine financial crisis is whole 9 years probably sale index also is not very high, the enterprise also is to adopt more careful strategy. 2010, real 2011 sale and demand are tall. Now the suppress that these adjusting control policy are provisionality only, whole judgement should meet those who one has been compared pick up 2013. Whole come down, we are whole according to annual statistical caliber, join in front demand of office of dormitory of the family of judgement, school, government, whole cardinal principle of dimensions of sale of terminal of sale of our judgement home is met comply with a such trends, add fast in after growing two years continuously, next year we judge whole market to add fast should 7.4% . The comparison that has growth of a few a particular year is tall, have a few lower, come down on average probably 15% , follow actually in front whole demand climate is more consistent. </p><p>This is us a judgement to market dimensions, whole namely two are nodded, one is to be able to not carry the compound increase rate of 15% roughly, but can appear next year the suppress of a provisionality, namely whole market rises our judgement to be in only 7.4% , this is in market dimensions angle. </p><p>Next next we can continue to be judged from demand angle, the structure of level of market of whole air conditioning, actually in front analysed town and rural area. We can see two kinds of demand of town and country do an across in detail, we can see whole 2013 compound increase rate grows whole we are in from 2010 15% , the country is in 35% , the country is added fast very fast, meeting from 21% rise to 30% , the country is the main engine that prospective market rises. </p><p>Exterior element, market of class of just a little has a few such factors, market of class of just a little retains rate had been in higher level, plan of energy-saving benefit civil administration also basically is in market of class of just a little, so this kind of demand is released ahead of schedule, basically be demand of market of class of just a little release. </p><p>The 3rd basically is estate, the area that estate basically suffers an effect also is market of class of just a little, I have a few good relative to benefit factors. Family of the first country gains ground quickly, can drive the follow-up with rural follow-up to air conditioning demand family, since policy of go to the countryside of the 2nd home appliance carries out two years in the whole nation, promoted maturity of whole distribute channel, this also is to be helpful for air conditioning developing it to be in a country the market is opposite the late dominant position at industry of other home appliance. </p><p>Of plan of civil administration of the 3rd energy-saving benefit exit, can let more enterprises invest more resource excellent report go to the countryside, such since, whole we value 34 class market quite. One when we do computative, we predict 34 season sales volume achieved 14.3 million 2012, add compared to the same period fast 41% , outclass is overall growth level of the mayor. The growth level of 2012 year makes a market is 7.4% , level of growth of 34 class market arrives 41% , but market of class of just a little may appear the negative growth of a brief sex. This is whole to market structure, 34 class market can take market structure next year probably a such 30% levels of overall market. </p><p>The last market of air conditioning of times of the policy after be opposite namely and product trend, can have how development. We are gucci bags considered back and forth above all, policy is affected to whole product actually the biggest is plan of energy-saving benefit civil administration. We review above all with plan of energy-saving benefit civil administration, produced two very marked change, above all the first phase is energy-saving Hui Min before policy solid inflict, basically be old 45 form product, did not amount to the product of mark now namely, began in June from 9 years, the energy-saving Hui Min of the first phase begins, the 2 class of old standard, namely the 3 class of new standard are occupied advocate. New gucci bags outlet standard begins later, forehead of benefit civilian allowance is spent decrease, overall for of air conditioning product can effect is the process that is in to upgrade gradually, there are two characteristics among whole process, the first frequency conversion grows quickly, the 2nd calm frequency can effect is in a trend that upgrade. So we produce the judgement that tastes a trend to next year, also be around this two are gucci bags sale nodded, want to discuss two issues: </p><p>The first is the rapid growth of frequency conversion, whether to mean the meeting that decide frequency to fall into disuse completely. We are possible judgement can look, actually since calendar year, original frequency conversion is foreign capital enterprise all the time, have company of little part home doing, its market is had rate be in lower level all the time, should take the lead in beautifully from 9 years high-key after entering frequency conversion, next Er of division force, sea, a series of domestic mainstream brand follow-up, after follow-up, frequency conversion market just grows truly rise, so we should say to market of whole frequency conversion is those who be in bibcock enterprise drive below, it real gucci bags appeared this kind grow quickly. </p><p>To prospective frequency conversion our judgement still is from demand angle, the price difference that decides frequency conversion now actually is the element that controls frequency conversion, of same proportion discounted gucci bags hang machine the price difference between calm frequency and frequency conversion approachs 600 fund probably, we are in the beginning of the year did survey of a consumer to make clear this year, if they are two price differences between are the word in 500 yuan, 37% choices frequency conversion, if frequency conversion is had in prospective market absolutely large dominant position, so be about both the price difference between is narrow in 300 money less than. With respect to the situation that we understand, at present the likelihood should reach this kind of level, from the point of whole industry point of view, it is more difficult, after saying although say,from demand angle allowance cancels so, price difference continues to narrow in 600 original gucci bags money, achieve a such 80% status, narrow 300 money, we think is more inaccessible in the near future. The price exists poorly, look at present to air conditioning demand, two years less than frequency conversion should achieve our judgement future the scale of 80% , will tell be the bottleneck with constant presence from demand angle. </p><p>From the point of supply point of view, also be the inadequacy of technology of a core, can restrict major company main supply frequency conversion, this is a restricted element actually. We can look, at present one is from frequency conversion control unit looks, did not master the skill of core truly, I put all eggs impossibly in " frequency conversion " go in this one basket, this is the circumstance of enterprise of leather gucci bags total to entire industry consideration, cardinal principle is a such situations. Frequency conversion compressor is achieved 80% , according to us in front computative dimensions, home should furnish the frequency conversion air conditioning of 55 million above, namely the compressor of 55 million above, the yield of the frequency conversion compressor that at present we understand can and enlarge produces a plan, temporary short of this level. Here wants to emphasize, frequency conversion is sure future is trend of a mainstream, but it can wash out a likelihood quickly to still be worth deliberate to calm frequency, this is an overall judgement. Rose to 45% 2012, can decide frequency more than 2013, 2014, approached a such 70% levels gradually 2015, this gucci bags outlet is us a view, take do to discuss with everybody. </p><p><p>Still having is energy-saving Hui Min after allowance policy is exited, calm frequency can appear can effect convert, monthly detects reflect inside the report, from 2011 6 for, frequency is decided after be being exited namely the circumstance of 3 class, already apparent now sale is occupied than enlarge, in light of two brands, choose two to look representatively, this is division force, this also is after abolishing subsidy, its 2 class place occupies its oneself to hang the proportion of machine is going low, next it is in of promotion is 3 class frequency conversion. This is from the enterprise angle looks, include a few taste newly, those who adjust is politic, also be now everybody tastes 3 class newly more, we judged whole market to appear from supply point of view the trend that 2 class take downward to 3 class gradually. From demand designer gucci bags angle 2 class compare awkward position at, if demand angle is analysed, one user has two kinds on this problem, one kind is energy-saving action, one kind is price action, energy-saving and first word, according to everybody's understanding has not compared frequency conversion for certain now, if not be the price preferential however energy-saving and preferential, choose frequency conversion for certain. Such word that is to say and class decides frequency to be told actually from demand angle, it is to be in a more awkward position, we are so whole judgement decided frequency 2012 can effect grade gucci bags 2011 appears very likely retrogression, but plan of energy-saving benefit civil administration on the whole energy-saving product can effect upgrade promotes. </p><p>We are right a judgement of the coming year, cardinal principle is a such scale, rate of calm frequency market can pick up 2012, will replace 2 form product to make main trend of the market that decide frequency. </p><p>Whole word, I include trend of market gucci handbags dimensions, structure, product to what everybody reports, cardinal principle is these, finally, I wish sincerely: </p><p>Flourishing of air conditioning industry, each good luck that be present, thank everybody! </p>jingruibmq
27.08.2011 04:40
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Join Date: 05.09.2011 Comments: 46
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